RawlsGroup.org

It is safe to say that the number one question I am asked is when I think the market will recover and when will prices begin to rise. Though very difficult to answer, what we can do is look at the statistics on both a local and national level and form a game plan based on what we know. After studying both the 4^th quarter statistics and Credit Suisse’s 2010 Housing Overview and Outlook, I feel confident reporting that segments of our market have begun to rebound, specifically the under 200K segment. Inventory has begun to stabilize along with prices coupled with first time homebuyers making up over 50% of national homes sales from the momentum created from the tax credit. (A 15-20% decline in homes sales is expected after the credit expires).

So, let’s take a look at some important statistics for both our business planning and for client touches and conversations. Some good news for starters is that buyers are more optimistic about future price appreciation. In fact, the buyer traffic index increases from a low of 25 in December 08 to the mid 40’s by August of 09. As the pace of home sales picked up non-distressed properties have significantly outnumbered distressed causing prices to start to stabilize. Now, inventory is lower in the lower priced markets but the luxury markets (over 750K) on a national and local level are still at all time highs. Nationally, less that 2.5% of all sales that occurred in 2009 were above 750K.

There still are some major influencing factors that we need to look out for. Interest rates, ARM resets and release of distressed properties in to the market place all play critical roles in the state of the market. If we were to see a 50bp increase in rates, it is predicted that an immediate 5% decrease in prices is expected. However, we do not expect a raise of more the 25-30bps as a result of the Feds exit. Most option ARMS recast in 2011-2012 creating reason for precaution in what is still to come.

Currently there are 75 million homes in the US, of which about 52M have a

mortgage. About 8M are currently in some stage of delinquency (about 2M

are in 30-days Dlq, 1M 60-Day Dlq, and 2.3M each in 90+ days and

foreclosure stages and about 0.6M in REO). Various foreclosure moratoria and modification efforts (Home Affordable Modification Plan) have held off a significant amount of distressed supply (about 1M loans are currently in the HAMP pipeline) from the market, allowing the housing market to stabilize. When these properties will be released is unknown. 

Based on the Credit Suisse home sales projection of 6M for 2010, the market should be able to absorb 1.6M distressed sales without a significant price decline. However, in order to contain the number of distressed sales to that level, they estimate an additional 1.5M to 2M distressed sales must be prevented or postponed in 2010. To achieve this, the pace of HAMP modifications would have to more than double.  In the unlikely event that the entire shadow inventory of 3.2M homes comes to market in 2010, they estimate prices could decline by as much as 15%.

What continues to be true is there are large amount of unknowns in the marketplace. What we can say for certain is that inventory for now has begun to stabilize in the lower priced markets and buyer confidence continues to rise. It is always a good time for a seller to sell and a buyer to buy based on their needs. That is where our job begins!

Dear Team,

 It is 9:45, New Year’s Eve 2009. As I sit in my bedroom after spending the day organizing my office and home, I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. That might sound strange, as it does a little bit to me, but I am filled with a profound sense of excitement and optimism. I have been reflecting a lot on 2008 and 2009 a lot over the last week. I am of course excited to begin this new decade and put the past few years behind, but in those same thoughts I am filled with gratitude for them as well.

Gary Keller always says be careful that you don’t wish away the challenging times as you’ll miss the precious moments in them. Yes, that is so true. Yes, I am grateful for experiencing the birth of my sons which I imagine will be the most powerful moments I’ll have. My excitement, reflection and profound gratitude, however, take me in another direction as well.

I often wonder, if the economy and business world stayed as we knew it in 2006 and even part of 2007, who would I be today? Perhaps I would be a stay at home mom or maybe we’d all be plugging along not able to truly appreciate all we have and what we are a part of. What I can assure you is that these challenging times have given me the strength, desire and drive to fight. They have empowered me to get up every day and believe in all of you more than I could have ever imagined. Each troubled story I hear is the reason to work harder, care more and be so very grateful for the infrastructure and family we have within the Rawls Group and Keller Williams Realty.

I believe that the battle wounds we all now wear have beautifully crafted us in to better human beings. I feel that relationships are stronger, value is defined and boy do I believe that success will never taste as good as it will when we all see the other side. It is exciting. I feel so blessed to be your leader. This opportunity is what makes me the wife and mother that I am and drives me to be the best version of my self I can be. Thank you for that.

My prayer for you tonight is that you’ll embrace the New Year with love in your heart and the desire to succeed at the highest level. I pray for your health and that of your family and that you’ll touch the lives of other as you have mine.

With gratitude,

Jeri Moran

For those of you who went through Bold, you might remember a suggested book called “The Energy Bus.” As we come to the end of the year, we face the holiday season of go-go-go and we look forward to the prosperous and happy New Year, I can’t think of a better concept to look at. I highly recommend you pick up this best seller by Jon Gordan and until then, I’ll highlight the action plan.

The Energy Bus, reveals ten secrets for approaching life and work with the kind of positive, forward thinking that leads to true accomplishment – at work and at home.

“Everyone faces challenges. And every person, organization and company and team has to overcome negativity and adversity to define them and create their success. No one goes through life untested and the answer to these tests is positive energy – the kind of positive energy that consists of the vision, trust, optimism, enthusiasm, purpose, and spirit that defines great leaders and their dreams.

The Ten Steps to the Energy Bus Action Plan:

1.  Create Your Vision – Where do you want your bus to go?

2.  Fuel Your Vision with Purpose – What do you stand for? How will your vision benefit others?

3.  Write down your vision/purpose statement

4.  Focus on your Vision – make a copy of it and give it to your team

5.  Zoom Focus – What action steps necessary to achieve the goals that will make your vision a reality?

6.  Get on the Bus – Identify who else needs to be on the bus and invite them on.

7.  Fuel the Ride with positive energy an enthusiasm – engage others on a daily basis

8.  Post a sign that says “No energy vampires allowed” – Identify negative team members, open communication and let them know they are being negative.

9.  Navigate Adversity and Potholes – What can I learn from this challenge?

10. Love your passengers – How can I recognize them and spend valuable time with them?

11.  Have fun and enjoy the ride! – Every journey should be fun!

We are so proud of all the hard work and dedication each of you has shown throughout 2009. Finish Strong and remember what you gain in this market can never be taken away. What you loose, you cannot get back.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah and God bless you all!