RawlsGroup.org

In just a few hours I’ll be boarding the plane home back to Atlanta. Reunion just flew by this year and it was packed with valuable information. I thought I’d give you some of the “pearls” I took from these past four days and with them encourage you to start budgeting for next years Family Reunion in Anaheim, CA. How awesome!

They really don’t call it Family Reunion for just any reason. I love how these days together allow us to see partners from all over the country, learn from the best and spend quality time with our own as well.

The conference opened with a bang with Gary Keller as always giving us his real life view of our current situation and where our mind needs to be to succeed. He spent the first half hour sharing some of the best quotes of all time on adversity. For example:

“In truth, great lives are defined by the challenges that are overcome. Without Goliath there would be no David.” “History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to be discouraged by their defeats.” “Success is the ability to go from one failure to the next with enthusiasm.” “Nothing is easier than saying words. Nothing is harder than living them day after day.” And, “Most people give up when they are about to achieve success.”

Gary went on to challenge us to know at all times in our market: 1. Homes Sales 2. Home Prices 3. Inventory 4. Mortgage Rates 5. Affordability. Thank goodness for Chuck Carr! Gary also suggested that we don’t know our scripts like we should and that we MUST master them.

One of my favorite aspects of these events is being able to attend the top agent classes. I love learning new scripts and tips for you and one theme that came up over and over was how we spend our time. When asked what the key to success was, Chris Heller said, “It all revolves around your time. Are you following a schedule? Are you lead generating.” Another top agent noted the three keys to success are “Have a unique sell proposition that you master, USE a database and do all communication through it and know the DISC and use it with your clients.”

As for the social media world, I had the opportunity to speak one on one with cyber guru and top agent Brad Korn. “Use Facebook like a 33 touch. Don’t be passive about it and just post new listings. Strategically, contact five people a day and go to their facebook page and comment about something relevant in their life.”

Finally, it was announced that by late 2011, Keller Williams will go International! We were also the ONLY franchise to grow last year and received top awards and recognition for our innovation and leadership in the real estate industry.

If you budget $200.00 a month from now until next January, you can have your trip and spending money paid for! Please consider it.

 We WILL win in 2010!

It is safe to say that the number one question I am asked is when I think the market will recover and when will prices begin to rise. Though very difficult to answer, what we can do is look at the statistics on both a local and national level and form a game plan based on what we know. After studying both the 4^th quarter statistics and Credit Suisse’s 2010 Housing Overview and Outlook, I feel confident reporting that segments of our market have begun to rebound, specifically the under 200K segment. Inventory has begun to stabilize along with prices coupled with first time homebuyers making up over 50% of national homes sales from the momentum created from the tax credit. (A 15-20% decline in homes sales is expected after the credit expires).

So, let’s take a look at some important statistics for both our business planning and for client touches and conversations. Some good news for starters is that buyers are more optimistic about future price appreciation. In fact, the buyer traffic index increases from a low of 25 in December 08 to the mid 40’s by August of 09. As the pace of home sales picked up non-distressed properties have significantly outnumbered distressed causing prices to start to stabilize. Now, inventory is lower in the lower priced markets but the luxury markets (over 750K) on a national and local level are still at all time highs. Nationally, less that 2.5% of all sales that occurred in 2009 were above 750K.

There still are some major influencing factors that we need to look out for. Interest rates, ARM resets and release of distressed properties in to the market place all play critical roles in the state of the market. If we were to see a 50bp increase in rates, it is predicted that an immediate 5% decrease in prices is expected. However, we do not expect a raise of more the 25-30bps as a result of the Feds exit. Most option ARMS recast in 2011-2012 creating reason for precaution in what is still to come.

Currently there are 75 million homes in the US, of which about 52M have a

mortgage. About 8M are currently in some stage of delinquency (about 2M

are in 30-days Dlq, 1M 60-Day Dlq, and 2.3M each in 90+ days and

foreclosure stages and about 0.6M in REO). Various foreclosure moratoria and modification efforts (Home Affordable Modification Plan) have held off a significant amount of distressed supply (about 1M loans are currently in the HAMP pipeline) from the market, allowing the housing market to stabilize. When these properties will be released is unknown. 

Based on the Credit Suisse home sales projection of 6M for 2010, the market should be able to absorb 1.6M distressed sales without a significant price decline. However, in order to contain the number of distressed sales to that level, they estimate an additional 1.5M to 2M distressed sales must be prevented or postponed in 2010. To achieve this, the pace of HAMP modifications would have to more than double.  In the unlikely event that the entire shadow inventory of 3.2M homes comes to market in 2010, they estimate prices could decline by as much as 15%.

What continues to be true is there are large amount of unknowns in the marketplace. What we can say for certain is that inventory for now has begun to stabilize in the lower priced markets and buyer confidence continues to rise. It is always a good time for a seller to sell and a buyer to buy based on their needs. That is where our job begins!

Dear Team,

 It is 9:45, New Year’s Eve 2009. As I sit in my bedroom after spending the day organizing my office and home, I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. That might sound strange, as it does a little bit to me, but I am filled with a profound sense of excitement and optimism. I have been reflecting a lot on 2008 and 2009 a lot over the last week. I am of course excited to begin this new decade and put the past few years behind, but in those same thoughts I am filled with gratitude for them as well.

Gary Keller always says be careful that you don’t wish away the challenging times as you’ll miss the precious moments in them. Yes, that is so true. Yes, I am grateful for experiencing the birth of my sons which I imagine will be the most powerful moments I’ll have. My excitement, reflection and profound gratitude, however, take me in another direction as well.

I often wonder, if the economy and business world stayed as we knew it in 2006 and even part of 2007, who would I be today? Perhaps I would be a stay at home mom or maybe we’d all be plugging along not able to truly appreciate all we have and what we are a part of. What I can assure you is that these challenging times have given me the strength, desire and drive to fight. They have empowered me to get up every day and believe in all of you more than I could have ever imagined. Each troubled story I hear is the reason to work harder, care more and be so very grateful for the infrastructure and family we have within the Rawls Group and Keller Williams Realty.

I believe that the battle wounds we all now wear have beautifully crafted us in to better human beings. I feel that relationships are stronger, value is defined and boy do I believe that success will never taste as good as it will when we all see the other side. It is exciting. I feel so blessed to be your leader. This opportunity is what makes me the wife and mother that I am and drives me to be the best version of my self I can be. Thank you for that.

My prayer for you tonight is that you’ll embrace the New Year with love in your heart and the desire to succeed at the highest level. I pray for your health and that of your family and that you’ll touch the lives of other as you have mine.

With gratitude,

Jeri Moran